It’s a gorgeous Saturday morning in downtown Sarasota, with the sun glistening off calm bay waters dotted with pleasure boats — but down in the Caribbean, a storm that shares its name with a song deeply tied to our area is nearing hurricane strength as it crawls toward Jamaica like a monstrous, mega-ton toddler.
The storm is forecast to rapidly intensify this weekend, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Melissa — which will remind many of the Allman Brothers Band song of the same name, sung and written by former Sarasota-Manatee resident Gregg Allman, with a sweet guitar solo by another local legend, Dickey Betts — was 160 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, with sustained winds of 70 mph and moving west-northwest at just 1 mph as of 8 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 25.
It appears Sarasota-Manatee has dodged a bullet, but we will continue to monitor the storm and any future developments — because it’s easy to forget that the Florida-threatening Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
Here are the latest updates on Tropical Storm Melissa from the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Storm Melissa located 926 miles southeast of Sarasota, Florida
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
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Location: 15.9N, 75W
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926 miles southeast of Sarasota
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Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph
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Present movement: East-southeast at 1 mph
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Minimum central pressure: 1,001 millibars
Latest advisory from National Hurricane Center on Tropical Storm Melissa
At 8 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located by Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 75 West. Melissa is drifting toward the east-southeast near 1 mph. A slow drift toward the northeast and north is expected to begin later today and tonight. A westward drift is then forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or just south of Jamaica early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 1,001 mb.
The advisory warns of the following dangers: WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti on Saturday and Jamaica beginning late Saturday or Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti later today and in Jamaica on Saturday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches of rain to southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Sunday night, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday night; however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southern Haiti. Across northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through Sunday night. Flooding impacts may increase across western Jamaica next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Jamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm conditions begin to reach the area. However, there is a potential risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa’s slow motion and large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how high the storm surge could reach. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Tropical Storm Melissa spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Tropical Storm Melissa: See projected path, storm tracker
Watches, warnings issued for Tropical Storm Melissa
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for: Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for: Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning may be required for Jamaica later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
Watches and warnings issued for Florida
NWS radar for Sarasota, Florida
Helpful hurricane resources and links
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This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Melissa could become Cat 5 hurricane, possible Sarasota impacts
