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Savers, and those opting for certificate of deposit (CD) accounts in particular, are heading into January with plenty of questions about what the new year might bring. After a long stretch of elevated yields and multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts in late 2025, many savers are wondering whether the CD market will continue offering the standout returns they’ve grown accustomed to — or if a shift could be coming as economic conditions evolve.
Inflation has eased, borrowing costs have fallen, and banks are reassessing their deposit strategies as they look ahead to 2026. At the same time, a large number of CDs opened during last year’s rate surge are set to mature in the first quarter, adding another layer of uncertainty for anyone planning their next move.
All of this has created a moment where savers are watching the data more closely than usual. With so many factors in motion — from the Fed’s path to labor-market signals to banks’ funding needs — the outlook for certificate of deposit rates in January isn’t as straightforward as it may seem. Here’s what experts say could shape the market as the new year begins.
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Will CD rates climb this January?
While anything can happen, experts largely expect that CD rates will fall in early 2026. For one, the Federal Reserve has been cutting rates in recent months, and as it continues to do so in the next year, as is largely expected right now, rates on CDs will likely follow suit.
“The Fed cut rates several times in late 2025, signaling a cautious path ahead,” says Amanda Erebia, director of retail banking and executive vice president at Amegy Bank. “Deposit yields typically follow the Fed’s benchmark rate with a lag, so savers may anticipate some softening in advertised CD APYs in the coming weeks and months.”
The swath of CDs that are set to mature in the first quarter of 2026 will also push down pricing, Erebia says.
Fortunately, CD rates will still be high compared to long-term averages, according to A’Jha Tucker, product manager for consumer deposits at Georgia’s Own Credit Union, and declines should be small and gradual. For a more significant drop, the economy or labor market would need to weaken substantially from where they are now, but “that’s not the current consensus,” Erebia says.
“CD rates are expected to ease down, but a steep drop would require the Federal Reserve to cut rates faster or more aggressively than anticipated, usually in response to a significant economic slowdown or a need to stimulate economic growth more forcefully,” Tucker says. “A sudden decline is unlikely.”
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Will CD rates stay the same this January?
For the most part, experts project that CD rates will trend lower as we get into 2026, but longer-term CDs — meaning those 12 months or longer — may hold out a little longer.
“The overall direction still points modestly lower, especially for short-term CDs,” says Mary Grace Roske, head of communication at CDValet.com. “Longer-term CDs are holding steadier as banks compete for more stable deposits.”
Long-term CDs give banks funds to use toward mortgages, loans, and other profit-earning products, so institutions tend to remain more competitive on those rates than many other products.
“Bank funding needs — not just headline rates — matter more than many savers realize,” Roske says.
Will CD rates climb this January?
Rising CD rates aren’t nearly as likely, experts say. For rates to rise, inflation would need to tick up, which would force the Fed to keep rates high or even increase them.
Given the most recent inflation report, which shows inflation down from 3% in September to 2.7% in November, that shift isn’t expected.
“Based on the current trajectory of the economy, it seems unlikely,” Tucker says.
Instead, a “continued, measured easing” is the current projection, Erebia says. “A substantial upswing is unlikely in 2026.”
The bottom line
Watching inflation, labor conditions and the Federal Reserve can give you an idea of where CD rates might head, but if you know a CD is on your agenda for 2026, experts say acting soon is probably the best course of action.
“The biggest mistake savers make is doing nothing,” Roske says. “Locking in a good rate now beats waiting for a better one that never comes.”
And if you don’t want to go all in on one CD just yet, creating a CD ladder with different terms may be an option.
“Stagger six-, 12‑, and 18‑month CDs, so portions mature regularly,” Erebia says. “This balances yield and flexibility, and it helps you adapt as rates evolve. Favor shorter- to mid‑term CDs. With banks anticipating additional easing, shorter- and mid‑term CDs often offer the most competitive fixed rates right now, while long‑term CDs may price in future cuts.”
