High-speed rail isn’t California’s only train to nowhere

Gavin Newsom’s widely-mocked high-speed rail isn’t the only “train to nowhere” in California. In fact, the Golden State is a virtual graveyard of near-empty “ghost” trains and buses.

That hasn’t stopped an aggressive push for more federal dollars for public transit dollars in California, as Congress prepares a new five-year surface transportation bill, with billions of dollars more slated for urban transit programs.

Nearly every special-interest group, from big-city mayors and regional planning agencies to construction firms, transit unions, and even the Chamber of Commerce, is lobbying for more transit funding.

Yet the evidence shows clearly that decades of massive transit spending in California have not improved urban mobility.

A new Unleash Prosperity study examining the latest Census mobility data through 2024 finds that in nearly every major metro area in the country, public transit market share has dropped sharply even as spending has soared.

Adjusted for inflation, transit spending nationally is up nearly sixfold since 1960, but the percentage of commuters who actually ride buses and trains has fallen by roughly two-thirds.

California is no exception, despite spending more per capita on transit than almost any state. This is the very definition of negative efficiency.

The next time you see a bus or light-rail train pass by, notice how few passengers, if any, are aboard. Today, only about one out of every 25 commuters uses mass transit.

The latest fad among urban planners is the “15-minute city.” It’s a nice idea: a city in which public transit is just a short walk away.

But outside of very high-density urban cores, transit simply does not and cannot come close to achieving that goal.

Among the nation’s 50 largest metro areas, nearly 60 times more jobs are accessible by car within 30 minutes than by transit. That disparity is even greater in sprawling California metros.

Download The California Post App, follow us on social, and subscribe to our newsletters

Meanwhile, Americans who drive alone still get to work in under 30 minutes on average, despite some of the nation’s highest gas taxes and congestion pricing proposals.

This is largely because a car, or even riding a bike or walking, will take you directly from your home to your workplace, door-to-door.

Buses, subways, and light rail almost never provide true point-to-point travel. In most cities, transit trips often require multiple transfers, long walks, and unreliable schedules, making them impractical for most working families.

The solution to improving mobility and shortening commutes in California is not to pour ever more money into costly transit systems, but rather to build and modernize roads and make them smarter.

For example, we could adopt light-change technology that moves the flow of traffic with fewer stops. Or we could use freeway management technology that reduces bottlenecks.

This is simple math. Nearly 20 times more Americans commute by car or work from home than use transit. More than three times as many people work from home as take buses or trains to work, a trend that has accelerated since the pandemic, and that shows no sign of reversing.

Those who lobby for public transportation continue to argue that more spending on buses and trains will reduce congestion and pollution. Many drivers even support public transit under the belief that it will get other commuters off the road.

That is an enduring myth. Transit ridership is now so small that it has virtually no measurable impact on traffic congestion in America’s metro areas.

As we move toward a future with increasingly low-cost, driverless Ubers and Lyfts, some cities are now experimenting with subsidizing these door-to-door rides and scrapping public transit altogether. This may soon be more cost-effective than putting low-income Americans on expensive and mostly empty buses, or subways with high operating costs.

Federal transportation dollars would be better spent improving and expanding road capacity rather than wasting more cash on 20th century “ghosts” that carry a steadily declining share of commuters.  

Wendell Cox is a senior fellow at Unleash Prosperity in transportation policy. He served three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission.