Montana Republican Sen. Steve Daines stunned lawmakers when, minutes before the March 4 filing deadline, he announced he would not seek reelection. Days later, California Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, who has served in Congress for more than two decades, also said he would not run again, in a district that was recently redrawn.
Their announcements add to a list nearing record length. About 1 in 8 lawmakers – 55 in the House and 10 in the Senate – say they don’t plan to run for reelection, shaking up congressional seats ahead of November’s midterms, in which majorities in both the House and Senate could be in play.
Stated reasons for leaving Capitol Hill span from political burnout to the pursuit of higher office. Twelve members, including 10 Republicans, are running for governor in their home states. Most of the others are retiring from public service.
Why We Wrote This
More members of Congress are leaving their jobs than they normally do in a midterm election year, and some are leaving public service altogether. It’s a sign that being a senator or representative may be tougher than it used to be.
While it’s common for members to retire ahead of congressional elections, this year’s number is particularly high. The most in recent history was 72 in 1992, at the end of President George H.W. Bush’s term, when more than 60 House members left. Experts say this year’s exodus is a sign of a deeper trend, as members of Congress face challenges ranging from partisan deadlock to increasing safety threats.
“Life just isn’t very fun if you’re a member of Congress these days,” says David Barker, a professor of government at American University.
Why members are leaving
Forty of the 65 House members not seeking reelection are Republicans. That matches a trend in which members of the political party in power are more likely to leave ahead of a midterm election, when the president’s party usually loses seats in Congress.
Alan Abramowitz, a professor emeritus of political science at Emory University, says this means that some members of that party – in this case Republicans – might cut their losses and get out of a race before they lose. Others might simply not be interested in serving if their party commands less power in policymaking.
“As a member of the minority party, there’s not much you can accomplish,” says Dr. Abramowitz.
Dr. Barker says Congress has also changed in ways that could make members feel as though they’re not making a difference.
Polarization and gridlock usually mean that lawmakers don’t get to pass as many laws, for example. Members now generally spend more time fundraising. Congress has also ceded some of its power to the presidency in recent years. For example, presidents have made broad use of executive orders.
“If you’re a member who really just wants to make policy and wants to try to get stuff done, then you don’t really get a lot of chances to do that,” says Dr. Barker.
A third issue – redistricting – could also be a factor. When Representative Issa won reelection in 2024, his district leaned heavily Republican. By the time he announced he wasn’t running, Democrats were proclaiming confidence they could win there after California redrew many of its congressional districts.
Redistricting – or gerrymandering, as it’s called when districts are redrawn to benefit a certain party or candidate – typically only happens once every 10 years, after a census. That changed last summer after President Donald Trump urged lawmakers in Texas to redraw the state’s congressional districts to gain as many as five new Republican seats.
On that issue, California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom responded by pushing a ballot measure to create new state maps that could give his party five extra seats. Since then, four states have redrawn their maps, and four others are considering legislation to do so.
That’s left some members, like Representative Issa, in districts they no longer recognize – and no longer think they can win.
Departures and the midterms
The slew of departures could mean that many congressional seats are more competitive in November than they would have been with an incumbent running.
When members leave out of fear their party will lose in midterm elections, says Jeff Lazarus, a political science professor at Georgia State University, “it creates a little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
Incumbents usually have the advantage of better name recognition and fundraising networks. When they choose not to run for reelection, that can leave two unfamiliar candidates vying for voters’ support – raising the odds of a surprise outcome.
All this is a challenge for Republicans, whose majority in Congress is already razor-thin. They’re already losing California Rep. Kevin Kiley, who announced he will run as an independent, citing frustration with what he called “hyperpartisanship” and the gerrymandering, though he says he’ll continue to caucus with Republicans.
Many political forecasts suggest Democrats are poised to take back control of the House of Representatives in November. The Senate, where Republicans have a 53-47 majority, would be harder for Democrats to flip. But some think they have a pathway to do so.
The departures of so many Republicans mean that “an environment that already was going to favor Democrats this cycle is going to favor them that much more,” says Dr. Barker.
