Michael Goodwin: All is fair in love and war in the relationship between Mayor Mamdani and Gov. Hochul

And just like that, the honeymoon is over. 

Gov. Hochul believed she was on the cusp of a beautiful relationship with Mayor Mamdani — until he rudely reminded her that the socialist agenda remains his one true love. 

His “Dear Kathy” letter came wrapped in a public ultimatum.

Because of a deficit he inherited and his extravagant spending plans, he suddenly needed her help getting billions of dollars. 

He told her he would be forced to raise city property taxes by a whopping 10% unless she helped him impose big tax hikes on high-income city residents and corporations. 

The choice is up to her.

How generous of him! 

By putting her in a box, Mamdani turned Hochul into his hostage — just as she was moving into her own campaign for re-election. 

No matter which option she chooses, the governor’s supposed City Hall pal has given voters a “taxing” reason to replace her with a Republican in November. 

Even allowing for the fact that politics can be a dirty game, Mamdani’s move stands out because Hochul had endorsed him in last year’s primary and already started showering him with $2 billion of state money to spend on his pet projects. 

Instead of gratitude, all she got in return was a choice between politically toxic options.

While Mamdani is safe from voters’ wrath for four years, Hochul suddenly appears much more politically vulnerable than she was just a month ago. 

Buddies to budgets 

A Siena University survey taken in January showed her with a 49%-40% favorability rating among state voters, her highest marks since she replaced Andrew Cuomo in Albany in 2021.

The finding marked a big improvement in just a few months and the poll showed her trouncing her GOP opponent, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, by a whopping 54% to 28%. 

Hochul had taken lessons from Mamdani’s victory, and was reshaping her campaign to work with the mayor to solve the “affordability” crisis that fueled his triumph.

Her eagerness to win over his supporters illustrates how the far left has captured the state Democratic Party. 

Lost in the fog of inconvenient history are Hochul’s earlier descriptions of herself as a moderate.

Now she is ready to hop on the progressive bandwagon in the belief it will carry her to four more years. 

Still, the underlying friction between them became clear when Mamdani released a preliminary budget that, by law, had to be balanced.

Although he already faced a $5 billion deficit, his $127 billion plan included a whopping $11 billion in new spending. 

Claiming significant cuts were impossible, he insisted massive tax hikes were only ways to pay for it all.

He essentially left it up to Hochul to decide whose taxes would be raised. 

In truth, no major tax hikes are necessary, but Mamdani wants them to deliver on his promise to wage war on the wealthy and fund his long list of giveaways. 

Clearly, he favors the income tax hikes, which require Albany approval.

If Hochul fails to push them through the Legislature, he intends to blame her for his exorbitant property tax surge, which requires City Council approval. 

Unlike the targeted wealth and corporate income tax proposal, the property tax onslaught would hit every homeowner, landlord and business and raise the cost of living and working in the city. 

Con Ed rates would shoot up again, because its property taxes are ultimately passed along to its customers through higher energy prices. 

Whatever path Hochul picks will give Blakeman a potent argument to accuse her of being a tax-and-spend Democrat and a pawn of Mamdani. 

A huge jump in property taxes could potentially boost Blakeman’s appeal among a broader swath of affected voters in the five boroughs. 

Although Mamdani won City Hall with about 1.1 million votes, more than a million New Yorkers voted for other candidates. 

Additionally, the 34-year-old mayor is off to a very rocky start, especially with his cold-hearted response to the deaths of 19 people on the streets in January. 

Those who voted against Mamdani in November, whatever their party affiliation, should be, in theory, open to electing a more centrist governor, and could help resurrect the GOP. 

No Republican has won a state-wide election since George Pataki’s 2002 victory for his third term as governor, but the margins of Dem victories have been shrinking. 

The results in the city are key. 

The recent high-water mark for Republican candidates in the five boroughs has been 30%.

That’s what Lee Zeldin got when he challenged Hochul in 2022, but he lost the state by 5 points. 

Thirty percent is also the share of the city vote President Trump got in his 2024 election, while getting nearly 44% of the total state vote. 

That background gives rise to a belief among some in the GOP that Blakeman can defeat Hochul if he gets 35% in the city while also driving up turnout in reliable Republican precincts elsewhere in the state. 

Lose-lose 

In the normal course of events, 35% in the city would probably be out of any Republican’s reach during a midterm election where Dems are favored, but Mamdani’s amateur start, his demonization of the NYPD, his antisemitism and his ultimatum to Hochul have the potential to break the pattern. 

If the governor gives into the mayor’s demand to raise city income and corporate taxes after repeatedly saying she would not because it would drive people out of the state, Blakeman could pounce. 

At the same time, if Hochul doesn’t budge on the income taxes, but Mamdani gets council approval to raise property taxes by anywhere near 10%, Blakeman would have an opening to win over an even larger segment of disgruntled city voters. 

Already he has been linking Hochul to Mamdani, as when she, without public discussion, said she would transfer $1.5 billion of state funds to the mayor to help him close the budget gap. 

“Kathy Hochul is happily handing billions to New York City while suburban and upstate taxpayers struggle to pay their bills,” Blakeman said, then added, “If Albany truly has a $1.5 billion surplus — or if the Governor simply has that much money just laying around — that money should be used to cut school taxes for hard-working New Yorkers” instead of bailing out the city. 

Before that, in a press conference with Mamdani, Hochul announced that the state would pay the first two years of free child care for city 2-year-olds, at an estimated cost of $500 million. 

Her election-year spending splurge recalls an unforgettable observation made by the late US Sen. Everett Dirksen: “A billion here, a billion there and pretty soon you’re talking real money.”