CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten on Wednesday stressed that Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva’s (D) special election win in Arizona’s 7th congressional district could signal more good news for her party next year. (Watch the segment below.)
The victory by Grijalva — a progressive set to succeed her father after he died from cancer in March — further trims down on the GOP’s slim House majority and, according to Enten, indicates a “massive move to the left” in the district.
Grijalva won the special election by a margin of +39 percentage points, according to 87% of the estimated vote. That’s better than former Vice President Kamala Harris, who took the district by +22 percentage points last year.
Enten argued that Grijalva’s win in the district — which neighbors the U.S.-Mexico border — is linked to Democrats doing “much better” in predominantly Latino districts.
And, he added, Grijalva joins others in her party who outperformed their opponents in a House special election this year.
In the average House special election, Democrats are doing +18 percentage points better this year than Harris did in 2024, per Enten.
“Again, this is one of the best signs that Democrats have had, so far — when people vote, Democrats are doing significantly better than they did just a little bit less than a year ago,” Enten said.
Enten declared that the party’s performance has the potential to “really matter” in next year’s midterms before pointing out that the party that “outperformed” in special elections since 2005 went on to win the House five out of five times.
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