Wars truly let you tell friend from foe.
With U.S. airstrikes devastating Iran’s dangerous ballistic missile and nuclear capabilities, Iran and its proxies lashed out at American military bases, U.S. allies and sea lanes across the Middle East. Ukraine rushed to our defense. Russia, having enabled the ayatollahs for decades, continued to help Tehran.
Ukraine’s assistance in this conflict is valuable and could be critical.
More than 70% of Iranian strikes — more than 2,000 by mid-March — came from Shahed drones. Capable of carrying 100-pound payloads, the drones hit Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, killing six American service members; U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain; the United States’ $300-million Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery in Jordan; three U.S. embassies and consulates; allied airbases; and oil refineries, fuel tanks, desalination plants, cargo ships, airports and seaports.
The U.S. military has been shooting down about 90% of the drones, but 10% of Iran’s fleet is a major threat. Iran reportedly had about 80,000 Shaheds stockpiled before the war and could still make about 1,000 of them a month. Drones can be hidden better than missile complexes or nuclear facilities. Any ebbing of drone strikes could be deceptive, with Iran amassing them for another swarming assault.
Moreover, at about $25,000, a Shahed drone costs one-tenth to one-four-hundredth as much as the interceptors that the U.S. and allies have used against them. By mid-March, U.S. forces reportedly had expended around 1,000 Patriot (PAC-3) interceptors — nearly double the United States’ annual production and more than Ukraine used in four years fighting off Russia. This rate is hard to sustain. Rapid dispatch of 10,000 cheaper ($10,000) U.S.-made Merops interceptor drones — a brainchild of a Ukrainian sergeant and former Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt — is helping. But that is still far short of Iran’s prewar drone inventory.
Ukraine knows the peril and the challenge better than anyone else. It has sustained 65,000 Shahed-type drone attacks from Russia over three years, more than 150 a day on average last year. Despite those staggering volumes, Ukraine holds the fort. It has developed highly effective Bullet interceptor drones. While not as sophisticated as Merops, the Bullet costs about a tenth as much and is up to 100 mph faster. Ukraine is on track to produce 1,000 Bullets daily.
Ukrainians’ battle-hardened expertise is priceless. They didn’t hesitate to share it. Responding to requests, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky immediately sent specialists and troops to the Gulf, including to the U.S. military base in Jordan. They have been evaluating defenses, training U.S. and allied forces, and helping with electronic warfare, sonic sensors and software.
Ukraine is helping the U.S. military achieve core objectives, which ought to reduce uncertainty currently driving up gas prices and the cost of living here at home.
Russia looks the other way, or worse.
This January, Moscow increased military shipments to Iran, most likely including attack helicopters, air defense systems, spare parts for Su-35 fighter jets, radio-electronic equipment and sniper rifles. The armored vehicles it provided earlier helped Tehran brutally suppress mass protests this January, defying President Trump.
Moreover, Western intelligence showed Russia revealing to Tehran the locations of U.S. troops, aircraft and ships and giving advice on how to best use Shaheds against American and allied targets. It could be more than advice. Remnants of a Russian-made Shahed-type drone shot down over the Middle East’s largest port were found in Dubai.
Moscow has every incentive to help Iran keep its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. It undermines the U.S. economy and leverage. Washington has already suspended sanctions on Russian oil, allowing India to resume purchases. At around $100 a barrel, these sales beef up Putin’s war chest faster than before.
The money will boost Russia’s effort to upgrade the Shaheds, which can be securely shipped to Iran through the Caspian Sea.
Rather than letting Russia expand its reach, this is also a moment when, to end the war on Ukraine, Trump could again wield the potent tools he used earlier in his presidency: demand that Moscow agree to a 90-day ceasefire for peace talks, reposition U.S. submarines to call Russia’s nuclear bluff and revisit the idea of providing more powerful, long-range weapons to Ukraine.
The Iran and Ukraine conflicts are intertwined. Inaction would hurt the U.S. national interest: Failing to help Ukraine stop Moscow would mean enabling Russia to help Iran stall the U.S. in the Middle East. A partnership with Ukraine would serve the U.S. national interest: With Ukraine’s expertise and drones, U.S. and allied forces can free up more sophisticated interceptors that Kiev could use against Russia’s ballistic missiles currently destroying Ukraine’s infrastructure.
There’s a deeper reason why Ukraine is helping the U.S. and why we need to help Ukraine more. My polls with Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences Institute of Sociology keep showing that Ukrainians are determined to defend the same core values upon which our nation was founded 250 years ago: freedom and independence. Sustaining bonds with such nations is vital.
Mikhail Alexseev, a professor of international relations at San Diego State University, is the author of “Without Warning: Threat Assessment, Intelligence, and Global Struggle” and principal investigator of the multiyear “War, Democracy and Society” survey in Ukraine.
