The spike in oil prices as a result of the Iran war is a gift to Russia, replenishing depleted coffers and easing the burden of pursuing its costly war in Ukraine.
At the same time, the extensive use across the Middle East of air-defense systems to counter Iranian missile attacks poses a new worry for Ukraine, as it makes procuring the scarce resources it needs to defend against Russia’s drone and missile barrages even more difficult.
Overall, the knock-on effects of the expanding Middle East conflict are likely to play to Russia’s interests and allow it to pursue its war in Ukraine longer, a number of analysts of the two wars say.
Why We Wrote This
From soaring oil prices to depleted missile defenses, the Iran war’s impacts reverberated quickly in the older Ukraine conflict. And the needs of the Mideast combatants – intelligence and anti-drone measures – have created diplomatic and strategic openings for both Russia and Ukraine.
Yet some also see a long-term gain for a plucky Ukraine in how it has offered its homegrown anti-drone technologies to Western and Mideast partners – transforming itself from a needy defense consumer to a valuable contributor to its partners’ defense and security.
“At least in the short term, a number of the developments we see with the outbreak of war in Iran are beneficial to Russia’s interests,” says Robert Person, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia program in Washington.
“But despite the very serious problems this new war presents for Ukraine, the moment is also a potential watershed,” he adds. “We’re witnessing its transition from a war victim pleading from capital to capital for its defense to a valuable defense contributor and partner.”
As Iranian Shahed drones began slamming into U.S. bases as well as into cities in the Gulf and wider region, Ukraine was quick to offer its state-of-the-art technology and experience in countering the Shaheds to the United States, Jordan, and several Gulf Arab countries.
A diminished U.S.
But Russia, too, stands to gain from the Iran war in ways that go beyond its war in Ukraine, some analysts say.
“Already, we see [President Donald] Trump looking for an exit from what in less than two weeks is a very costly war,” says Rajan Menon, professor emeritus in international studies at City College of New York. “For Russia but also for China – two countries with strong ties to Iran – the apparent failure of this war is a win in the way it takes the United States down a notch.”
Scott Peterson/Getty Images/The Christian Science Monitor
The Trump administration handed Russia another windfall on Thursday when it temporarily removed sanctions on Russian oil as part of an effort to contain rising oil prices. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a social media post that removing the sanctions even temporarily would add hundreds of millions of barrels to the global market.
Later, during a podcast interview, the secretary acknowledged that Russia would benefit from the suspension, calling it “unfortunate.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin is well aware of the wider benefits he stands to reap from the transformation of Washington’s war on Iran into a wider regional conflict, Dr. Person says.
While Russia is already a winner with the higher energy prices, he notes, exporting its oil does not require access to the Strait of Hormuz – which Iran has vowed to keep closed.
“But on another level,” he adds, “as a leader of the global coalition to counter and contain the U.S., Russia is more than happy to see another American distraction.”
Ukraine on the back burner
A United States distracted by war in the Middle East is less likely to maintain its pressure for a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine. That presents positives for both Russia and Ukraine, some analysts say.
Russia, with its financial worries alleviated, will be able to pursue the fighting in Ukraine free of diplomatic efforts for a settlement it never showed interest in anyway. And Ukraine will feel less pressure to accept a painful “land-for-peace” deal the U.S. has been pushing.
The downside for Ukraine is a diplomatic vacuum that leaves it marginalized on the international stage even as Russia is expected to ramp up its aggression with a spring-summer offensive.
Indeed, the nightmare scenario for Ukraine is an exacerbated global scarcity of air-defense systems and munitions that leaves its cities defenseless in the coming months against intensifying Russian air assaults.
Martial Trezzini/Keystone/AP
“In just the first week of war in the Middle East, we saw scores of Patriot air defense launchers sending up hundreds of interceptors against incoming Iranian missiles and drones,” Dr. Person says. “Where Ukraine comes in is that we know production of these coveted systems is limited,” he adds, “so, as these countries burn through their supplies, that simply means more competition for a scarce product.”
European officials acknowledged last week that the increased pressure for air-defense systems as a result of the Iran war will complicate their commitment to provide Ukraine with such weaponry.
Concerns have risen in European capitals – as well as among some pro-Ukraine members of Congress – that Russia will take advantage of depleted air defenses to accelerate attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure with the goal of bringing the country to its knees.
Longer-term objectives
But some observers say Mr. Putin is almost certainly looking for other ways beyond Ukraine that he can turn the U.S. war in Iran to his advantage.
Dr. Menon notes for example that Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump held an hour-long phone call last week, even as the Russian leader has suggested he could play a mediation role in any talks between Iran and the U.S.
“Russia being bogged down in Ukraine has raised many questions over whether Russia really is a great power,” he says. “If Putin could position himself as a mediator, that could help him put off those doubts and refurbish Russia’s image as a major power.”
Russia also wouldn’t want the war in the Middle East to drag on too long and result in chaos near its southern border, Dr. Person says, something Russia has long feared.
At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is demonstrating through his offering of anti-drone technology the “smarts” that have advanced his standing on the international stage, he says – and which have cemented Ukraine’s image as a scrappy defense technology innovator.
The Iran war “has both [Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelenskyy] playing true to character,” he says.
Intelligence sharing
The question of how Mr. Putin is playing in this war arose again after reporting – first in The New York Times and then in other media outlets – of U.S. officials’ knowledge that Russia was sharing intelligence with Iran that allowed Tehran to target U.S. forces in the region.
Asked about the reports, Mr. Trump’s chief Iran negotiator, Steve Witkoff, told Fox News that Russia had denied sharing intelligence with Iran.
“Do the Russians have the capability to gather that kind of intelligence and then to share it? Yes, they do,” says Dr. Menon. “Would they then say they had shared it? Of course not.”
Moreover, he says, this kind of revelation is not likely to sway Mr. Trump, who established long ago his favorable view of the Russian leader and which he has maintained throughout Russia’s four-year assault on Ukraine.
Russian cooperation with Iran must be seen in the context of Moscow’s ambitions for a bloc that challenges U.S. global power, Dr. Person says. In that context, he says there’s something else to remember about intelligence sharing.
“The fact is,” he says, “the U.S. regularly provides intelligence to Ukraine for their attacks on Russian military targets.”
