Steve Kornacki’s guide to the NCAA Tournament: Why Kansas could be in trouble, plus other upset picks

The madness is back … or is it? The 2026 NCAA Tournament that will tip off on Thursday comes at a moment of transition — and, some say, crisis — for the sport.

I don’t want to sound pessimistic, but it does suddenly seem like an open question now whether the type of tournament that for decades has seduced so many fans like me still exists. My hope is that the next few weeks provide a jolt of reassurance that it still does.

Has Goliath slayed David?

Jaw-dropping upsets made the NCAA Tournament what it is. They made it feel magical and contributed mightily to its enduring appeal. And just a few years ago, those Cinderella stories were being written with more regularity than ever as No. 15 seeds made it all the way to the Elite 8 in 2021 (Oral Roberts) and 2022 (St. Peter’s) and to the Sweet 16 in 2023 (Princeton). That 2023 tournament also included the second-ever takedown of a No. 1 seed by a No. 16 seed (Fairleigh Dickinson over Purdue) and a Final Four trip by No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic.

But just like that, the parade of underdogs has come to a halt. In each of the last two tournaments, only one double-digit seed has made it past the first weekend — and both of them were from power conferences. Last year’s Elite 8 and Final Four matchups were chalk-fests. It’s hard not to conclude that the dramatic changes to the sport that have come through NIL and the transfer portal have benefited the bluebloods, but have they fundamentally changed the tournament itself? That possibility hangs over this year’s edition. If the top seeds and power conferences crush the mid-majors once more, the pattern will be all the more apparent. We’re about to find out if there is still any magic left in March.

If there’s going to be some magic…

I’ve got to believe it can still happen, so I have my eye on three potential first-round upsets. And I mean real upsets — not underachieving power conference teams with double-digit seeds.

No. 12 Akron over No. 5 Texas Tech

Conference rival Miami (Ohio) got all of the attention, but the Zips may actually have been the better team in the MAC. They narrowly lost to Miami in January and have won 19 of 20 games since then with their only loss coming to a very good Troy team (more on the Trojans in a minute). Texas Tech, meanwhile, lost star JT Toppin a month ago and seems to be feeling the effects, dropping three straight heading into this game.

No. 13 Troy over No. 4 Nebraska

The Trojans went out West early this season and knocked off San Diego State, one of the first four teams left out of the tournament by the selection committee. Two nights later, they took USC to triple-overtime on the road before falling by a point.

Troy is capable of playing with a power conference opponent, especially one like Nebraska, which after a 20-0 start to the season has gone just 6-6 down the stretch. The Cornhuskers have never won an NCAA Tournament game, but they have been victims of several first-round upsets. This could be one more of those.

No. 13 California Baptist over No. 5 Kansas

The Lancers employ a unique defense and boast one of the top scorers in the country in Dominique Daniels. But this pick is more rooted in my doubts about Kansas. They are talented and capable, to be sure, with wins over both Arizona and Houston. But they can be baffling too, with blowout losses to Cincinnati and Arizona State, and no one knows which version of their star Darryn Peterson will show up. Since winning the national title in 2022, the Jayhawks have yet to make it out of the first weekend. There are enough question marks here to get me dreaming of a classic March Madness upset.

The other kind of Cinderella

Last year’s “Cinderella” was No. 10 seed, Arkansas. Two years ago, it was No. 11 seed, N.C. State. If a new era is dawning, this may be the type of March magic we now have to settle for — teams who finished in the bottom half of power conferences getting on a roll when it really counts. Who could be this year’s version? It might be Texas A&M, the No. 10 seed in the South.

The Aggies play “Bucky Ball,” the relentless, up-tempo style that can flummox foes. It’s become the trademark of their first-year coach Bucky McMillan, who nearly led Samford to an upset of Kansas in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Potential matchup I’m most looking forward to

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 Arkansas in the Sweet 16

The tournament’s top overall seed, Duke, has to contend with a stacked region in the East, which means that the very slight favorite to cut down the nets in most betting markets is actually Arizona. They are certainly worthy of that distinction. The Wildcats are 32-2 overall and enter the tournament on a nine-game winning streak that includes four wins against top-10 teams. They are the best team from the best conference and feature an unusually balanced attack; all five starters average double digits in scoring. But what a test they could get in the Sweet 16 from Arkansas and its star guard Darius Acuff Jr., who is perhaps the most explosive and exciting star in the tournament. He averages 22 points a game but scored more than that in all four SEC tournament games, leading the Razorbacks to their first conference crown in 26 years. The winner of this game — if it comes to pass — might just keep rolling all the way to the title.

The NCAA Tournament winner (or kiss of death) will be…

This is what has become of my national championship pick in each of the last five tournaments:

2021: Illinois lost in the Round of 32

2022: Villanova lost in the Final Four

2023: Duke lost in the Round of 32

2024: Auburn lost in the Round of 64

2025: St. John’s lost in the Round of 32

That is simply atrocious, to the point that I’m wondering if by picking a team I am actually conjuring some kind of mystical force to thwart them. Given this distinct possibility, I cannot in good conscience choose the team that I want to win it all and that, deep inside, I think could make a real run (I won’t say the name, but it rhymes with “St. Bohn’s”). So instead, I’ll go with the depth and balance of long-overdue Arizona. Wildcat fans, I’m sorry to do this to you.